[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 110547
SWODY2
SPC AC 110546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
CBM 30 NNW BTR 30 W POE 30 S GGG 15 W DEQ 15 E RUE 25 W ARG 20 SSW
CGI 30 E PAH 25 WNW BNA 35 NNE HSV 40 SW CBM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSX 50 SSE CRS
15 SE MLC 35 N FLP 25 SE BLV 30 NNE EVV 25 S LEX 35 N TYS 30 NNW GAD
40 WSW 0A8 40 E PIB 20 SW GPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF EXTREME ERN TX
INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY...REACHING THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION THAN THE EUROPEAN MODELS...AND THESE MODELS ALTHOUGH MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS...ARE LESS SO THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.

...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD TRANSITION TO SLY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
TREND OF MODELS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WOULD...IF CORRECT...SUPPORT A MORE WLY COMPONENT AND FARTHER NWD
PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...THE MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST RETURN
OF MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM SERN TX TO THE SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH MID 50S NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THIS DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG OVER ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AOB 500 J/KG INTO THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A CAP...INITIATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER LAYER ASCENT AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. SWWD EXTEND OF AND DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND IN
PART ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. ONCE STORMS
INITIATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND
INSTABILITY...ONLY A LOW END SLIGHT RISK AT BEST APPEARS WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/11/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM