[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 101728
SWODY2
SPC AC 101727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E SSI 25 ENE VLD
AGS 15 E AHN 10 S TYS 10 ESE JKL ZZV 10 WNW CLE 55 E MTC ...CONT...
45 NNW ART 15 N RUT 75 SSW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 50 SSE OLM
EUG OTH 45 WSW OTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/GULF OF
MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKELY WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE POLAR STREAM...WHICH REMAINS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES. 

BELT EXTENDS OUT OF A STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC JET...WITHIN WHICH MODELS
SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PACIFIC.  THIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL STATES WEDNESDAY.  IN RESPONSE
TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...CLOSED LOW...NOW SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPI VALLEY...IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE BACK INTO THE PRIMARY BELT OF
POLAR WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/ CANADIAN MARITIMES.

...EASTERN STATES...
WARMING LOWER/MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY.  ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SEEMS LIKELY TO
MINIMIZE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY WEAK CAPE AND AT LEAST LOW
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG
MEAN FLOW REGIME...LINGERING SHALLOW COLD/STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER
IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
RISK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES...WHERE MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 
THEREAFTER...POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

..KERR.. 01/10/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM