[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 091730
SWODY2
SPC AC 091729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LBX 20 NW HOU
SHV 35 SSW HOT HRO 40 SE VIH 10 S MVN 10 ESE OWB LEX ATL CSG 70 SSE
PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM
50 NNW ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF FROM THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR
WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A SLOWLY DEEPENING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS AN UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND ROCKIES...AND AN UPSTREAM SUBTROPICAL JET PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

CENTER OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGGED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY
12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  MODELS INDICATE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS
WILL TAKE ON INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...AND WELL INLAND OF GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE
RIDGING WILL LIKELY PERSIST.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN FROM MODIFYING GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IN TURN
SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY...
WHILE SIGNIFICANT FURTHER MOISTURE INCREASES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...55-60F DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY PRESENT SOUTH OF
DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE...FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MID-LEVEL COLD CORE IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST
OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE TO
AROUND 500 J/KG OR LOWER INLAND OF IMMEDIATE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY BECOME JUXTAPOSED
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BEFORE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO COOLER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 
OTHERWISE...RISK FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO NEAR SURFACE-BASED TONGUE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF GULF COASTAL AREAS. 
BUT...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING/
INCREASINGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER
11/00Z.  THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WEST OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.

..KERR.. 01/09/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM