[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 090546
SWODY2
SPC AC 090545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE GLS 15 W IER 35
NE PBF 15 WNW CGI 35 WNW EVV 50 SSW BMG 20 SE SDF 35 WSW LOZ 30 ENE
CHA 35 E ANB 10 N TOI 25 SE PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CONSISTENTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS FEATURE THAN YESTERDAYS RUN AND HENCE SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 
THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO OK WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INDUCES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY AREA...

THE GULF WILL UNDERGO SLOW MODIFICATION THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS WILL
HELP ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD. HOWEVER...ERN EXTENT
AND OVERALL QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES THAT WILL TEND ADVECT
DRIER AIR NOW RESIDING OVER THE SERN STATES NWWD. AXIS OF BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY ADVECT NWD INTO TN WITH MID 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY. MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO UNDER 400 J/KG INTO THE TN VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG
AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND HEIGHT
FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE AS THE
DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. THE STRONGER FORCING AND VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME DISJOINTED FROM THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAIN POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ARE THE EXPECTED
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER
FORCING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/09/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM