[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 081727
SWODY2
SPC AC 081725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRP 45 S BAZ 40
SSE TPL 30 NNE TYR 30 W PBF 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 35 ESE JAN
20 NNW MCB BTR 55 SSE 7R4.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER
THE CONUS.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BE
THE MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE FRONT TRAILING WSWWD FROM A NERN U.S. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...AND
MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- MAINLY
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...E TX ENEWD ACROSS LA/SRN AR INTO NRN AL...
NWD ADVECTION OF SLOWLY-MODIFYING GULF BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE WORKING ONSHORE SHOULD REMAIN OF A
LIMITED DEPTH AND QUALITY.

MODEST HEATING AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING FRONT SHOULD YIELD SHALLOW
DESTABILIZATION AND WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
DEPTH OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY WARM/SUBSIDING AIR AT
MID-LEVELS WITHIN AND NEAR WARM SECTOR.

AS HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH BEGIN TO
OCCUR INVOF FRONT...SUFFICIENT COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT MAY
OCCUR TO ALLOW DEEPER CONVECTION -- AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST THUNDER THREAT WILL REMAIN N OF
SURFACE FRONT WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. 
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT. NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...STORM INITIATION APPEARS
LESS LIKELY -- BUT EVEN ASSUMING SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT...WEAK
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 01/08/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM