[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 080535
SWODY2
SPC AC 080534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 35 N VCT
35 NNE CLL 20 ENE GGG 25 W LLQ 20 SSW UOX 15 NNE CBM 20 SW 0A8 60 N
MOB 25 S PIB 30 NW MSY 35 SE 7R4.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY SUNDAY AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DEMARCATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CP AIR
WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN STATES SWWD INTO THE
TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND SERN TX. A SECONDARY UPSTREAM POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE
POST FRONTAL REGION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF THE FRONT.

...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

SFC WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SSWLY OVER THE WRN GULF...AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID 60S NEAR
THE COAST. AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE LOW
CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN PREFRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY
FROM THE GULF BY MONDAY AS THE LEE CYCLONE LIFTS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DEEP LAYER LIFT IN FRONTAL ZONE. SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IF SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING OCCURS TO WEAKEN THE CAP. OTHERWISE ELEVATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL PROFILES COOL AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES LIFT IN
VICINITY OF FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONGER FLOW
AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION.
THUS ANTICIPATED WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW THROUGH 4 KM IN WARM
SECTOR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 01/08/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM