[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 021725
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N UIL 20 ENE AST
ONP 45 WNW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CRE 35 SW FAY
20 W RDU 10 W RIC 45 SSE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S VEL 45 NW CAG 50
NE CAG 45 WNW FCL 55 S 4FC 35 ENE DRO 15 SW CEZ 15 WNW 4BL 15 ESE
U28 20 S VEL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC
COAST TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD...INSTABILITY
WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER...FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED AHEAD OF THREE
UNIQUE FEATURES.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS EWD EXTENT WILL MOST
LIKELY HAVE FORCED DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE/STRONGER TSTM ACTIVITY OFF
THE COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD.  COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS NORTH OF
JET AXIS MAY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

...CO...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 
SWLY FLOW...SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EMBEDDED WITHIN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

...NWRN COAST...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND BY
00Z ALONG THE WA COAST.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY OFFSHORE/NEAR SHORE LOW
TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 01/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM