[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 030540
SWODY2
SPC AC 030539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LRD VCT 45 S
BPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...MUCH AS INDICATED BY MODEL FORECASTS.  THIS
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND A DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  

SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST
ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS FORECAST TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN STATES.  GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS
THIS SAME REGION...IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG.  AS A RESULT...
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS VERY LOW THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

...WESTERN GULF COAST/GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGELY UNAFFECTED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE MEXICAN GULF COAST MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY.  THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH/EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE PROGGED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BROADER SCALE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  HOWEVER...BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SEEMS TO EXIST OFF SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

..KERR.. 01/03/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM