[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020604
SWODY2
SPC AC 020603

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N UIL 20 ENE AST
ONP 45 WNW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ILM 40 WNW HSE
20 E NHK NEL 40 SSE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VEL 10 NE RKS 10 NE
RWL 15 SE LAR 15 SSE FCL 35 E ALS 10 WSW FMN 10 SSE 4BL 15 E U28
VEL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

PORTION OF INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC UPPER JET...NOW NOSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...IS SLOWLY WEAKENING/
BREAKING DOWN INTO AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES.  AS THIS
OCCURS...PROGRESSIVENESS OF UPPER PATTERN IS SLOWING...BUT MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITHIN
REMNANT BELT OF STRONGER FLOW...WHICH BY TUESDAY WILL EXTEND FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN ITS WAKE...ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SOUTHEAST.  SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS VERY LOW.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST MORE INTENSE PORTION OF UPPER JET
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN INTO A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH....WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN STATES.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES.

...EAST COAST...
TIMING OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW HAS NOT SPREAD EAST
OF COASTAL AREAS BY 03/12Z...IT SHOULD SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
OROGRAPHY AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ALONG
COASTAL WASHINGTON/OREGON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS
MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
CREST OF BUILDING BROADER SCALE RIDGE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY SEEMS
LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND.

..KERR.. 01/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM