[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 011748
SWODY2
SPC AC 011747

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
ANB 20 S CSV 20 NNE LEX 25 NW UNI 20 SSW PKB 45 SSE HTS 20 WSW TRI
25 WSW AVL 15 NNW SPA 30 SSE GSO 20 NNE FAY 25 NNE CRE 25 SSW CHS 35
SSE AYS 30 NNE AAF 20 WNW PFN 20 ENE CEW 20 SSW ANB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
DAB 40 W PIE ...CONT... 60 S BVE 40 NNE MOB 25 W SEM 30 SE BNA 45
NNE BWG 30 NE HUF 35 NE LAF 35 SW TOL 15 NNW CAK 25 NE PIT 10 ENE
LBE 45 W MRB 30 N SHD 20 SSW SSU 55 SSW BLF 35 NE HKY 30 ESE LYH 40
W RIC 20 W WAL 35 E WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL
U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY
...CONT... 70 S HUM 25 ENE MEI 20 SSW MSL 45 WSW OWB 25 N SLO 30 N
ALN 35 SW BRL 35 WSW DBQ 30 WNW MKE 45 NE MTC ...CONT... 40 NNW JHW
30 SSW ELM EWR 35 SSE ISP.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY ENERGETIC AND AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC AND INLAND/EWD ACROSS THE U.S. MAINLAND INTO MIDWEEK.
POTENT IMPULSE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARD THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC DISTURBANCE...EVIDENT ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY APPROACHING 135 W...IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE
SCNTRL CA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.

IN THE EAST...DEEP CYCLONE TO START OUT THE PERIOD OVER IL WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WRN PA...AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL EXIST WELL INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY NARROW/CHANNELED NORTH
OF THE TN VALLEY WHERE APPALACHIAN ESCARPMENT WILL IMPEDE GREATER
AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THUS...A SECONDARY
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXIST FROM NRN GA ENEWD TO THE NC
PIEDMONT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND WAVE
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
PRIMARY CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING.

...OH TO TN VALLEYS...
AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER IL/IND...EWD TO
OH...AND THEN SWWD TO THE TN VALLEY. OH VALLEY ACTIVITY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT WILL OCCUR WITHIN STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WHERE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL
BAND OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AS STRONG DRY SLOT DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS OH/KY AND TN
THROUGH MIDDAY.

HEATING BENEATH THE DRY SLOT AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SEWD FROM THE
OH RIVER AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY/TN THROUGH EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS
AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF THIS CONVECTION CAN REMAIN
CELLULAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE UNDERWAY WITHIN BROAD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT FROM NRN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION
AND LOCATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL OVERCOME LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS
TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS LONG-LIVED STORMS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF WARM
CONVEYOR CONVECTIVE PLUME. THIS INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BOOST STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FROM GA TO THE CAROLINAS.
INTENSE MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT WILL FURTHER AID
STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONG-TRACK TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL NEAR
THIS FEATURE.

ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PNHDL AND SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS 70-80KT MID LEVEL
JET STREAK AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH SPREAD EAST ACROSS THESE
AREAS.

...CNTRL/SRN CA...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POWERFUL 130-150KT JET CORE SPREADING SEWD FROM CNTRL TO SRN CA.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND LEAD TO LOW
TOPPED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS. HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER
IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
STRONG DYNAMICS AND INTENSE SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT IS WARRANTED. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IF
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES.

..CARBIN.. 01/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM