[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010643
SWODY2
SPC AC 010642

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
CSV 45 W UNI ZZV 30 ENE PKB 20 SE CRW 45 W BLF 10 ENE AVL 35 NW SOP
FAY CHS SSI VLD DHN TOI 40 SW CSV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW
BVE 0A8 BWG 20 W SDF IND 25 NNW FWA 10 ENE TOL 30 NNW YNG DUJ EKN
SSU PSK 40 N GSO RIC 50 E WAL ...CONT... 50 E DAB 40 W PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL
U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S HUM MEI TUP EVV
DNV PIA BRL 25 SE ALO MTW 70 ESE BAX ...CONT... 25 WNW BUF 40 WNW
ITH ISP 40 SSW BID ...CONT... 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES....

INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY
EASTWARD...AND EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. WILL
OCCUR TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER JET PROGGED TO BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN INTO SERIES OF AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES.

LEAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH CENTER OF BROAD DEEP SURFACE LOW SHIFTING
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.  OCCLUDING SURFACE
LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.
 AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK /ON THE
ORDER OF 90 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL FORM ON SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BEFORE NOSING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/ FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

GIVEN NEAR COMPLETE MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW GENERALLY NEAR 70F...A
SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST AREAS
BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  DEW POINTS
INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 60F APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA
BY MONDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY.  THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING SHEAR
PROFILES...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL.  WARM
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERE MAY INITIALLY CAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.

UPSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INLAND
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.  COLD CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM COULD
SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOS ANGELES BASIN...BUT UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL
SUBSTANTIAL...AND TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY OUTLOOK SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

...MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
ALTHOUGH SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE PAST PEAK INTENSITY...
FORCING WITH INITIAL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN EXPECTED MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 500
J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT SHOULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR LIKELY...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST
IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF SURFACE LOW... FROM PARTS OF
INDIANA INTO OHIO...AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
GEORGIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ALABAMA/NORTHERN FLORIDA/ SOUTH
CAROLINA.  WITH APPROACH OF STRENGTHENING/DIGGING MID/UPPER  JET
STREAK...HODOGRAPHS/FORCING SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 01/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM