[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 271700
SWODY2
SPC AC 271659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST MON FEB 27 2006

VALID 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS BASED ON
12Z RAOB ANALYSES.  EXPECT CONTINUED BREAKDOWN OF WRN STATES MEAN
RIDGE THROUGH DAY-2 AS SERIES OF SW-FLOW PERTURBATIONS MOVES
ONSHORE.  MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE NOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF CA INVOF 135W-140W.  THIS TROUGH IS FCST
GENERALLY TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER NWRN STATES...NRN GREAT
BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES THROUGH PERIOD.

SMALL MIDLEVEL CYCLONE -- EITHER CLOSED OR NEARLY SO -- IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP OVER SRN ALTA/NRN MT REGION BY 1/12Z.  THIS PROCESS WILL
AID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES...HOWEVER
TSTM POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES WILL BE MINIMIZED BY LACK OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IN CONTINENTAL AIR MASS E AND SE OF LEE TROUGH.

...WRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY SWATH
OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT THAT WILL PRECEDE MID/UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH...IN ITS INLAND SHIFT FROM CA TO N-CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MID AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING LOCAL TIME -- ROUGHLY BETWEEN 28/21Z-1/01Z. THIS
WILL BE WHEN POCKETS OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF HIGH TERRAIN WEAKEN
CINH AND OPTIMIZE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN TANDEM WITH MIDLEVEL
UVV.  LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE WILL KEEP MLCAPES BELOW 100 J/KG
IN MOST AREAS AND PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2006