[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 280554
SWODY2
SPC AC 280553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD
INTO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY WED MORNING...DAMPENING THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS.  PARTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO PHASE WITH THE POLAR VORTEX SITUATED ACROSS ERN CANADA BY WED
AFTN...THEN AMPLIFY AND DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND MIDWEST WED
NIGHT. UPSTREAM...THE NEXT UPPER LOW...NOW DIGGING SWD OUT OF THE
GULF OF AK...WILL SWING SEWD INTO THE PAC NW AND NRN CA BY EARLY THU
MORNING.

AT THE SFC...PRIMARY LEE LOW OVER WRN NEB WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A
RETREATING WARM FRONT...REACHING THE MIDWEST BY WED EVENING AND THE
UPPER OH VLY BY 12Z THU.  A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY THU.  TSTM
PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND NRN
PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT.

...MIDWEST...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ADVECT MSTR NWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH/TN VLYS WED.  SURFACE BASED
PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED AS WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTS A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ EWD FROM THE VERY WARM SRN HIGH PLAINS. 
BY EVENING...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CONTRIBUTING TO
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN AND WEAKENING OF THE CAP.  ELEVATED
CONVECTION/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST EWD INTO
THE UPPER OH VLY WED EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VERY STRONG...SO LARGE HAIL SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT. 

MEANWHILE...CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SUCH THAT ISOLD TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  BUT...FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS WEAKER AT FARTHER S LATITUDES AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS
WILL DECREASE S OF THE OH RVR. 


...PAC NW/NRN CA...
PREFERRED GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW WED
NIGHT AND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO WA/ORE/NRN CA BY 12Z THU.
 CYCLONIC POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL FAVOR TSTMS GIVEN THE ONSHORE
MOIST FLOW...ENHANCED OROGRAPHICS...AND H5 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
AOB MINUS 30C.

..RACY.. 02/28/2006