[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 250549
SWODY2
SPC AC 250548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...
RESULTING IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COSTAL STATES...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION.

...SRN FL PENINSULA...
NAM/NCEP SREF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A BAND OF
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA.
THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAN THE
GFS AND NCEP SREF. THE NAM MAY BE OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TOO MUCH
DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GREATER PROBLEM FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
...HOWEVER...IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WLY WINDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE NCEP SREF AND GFS FORECAST OF WEAKER INSTABILITY...
PLUS THE EXPECTED WEAK CONVERGENCE...SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.

..IMY.. 02/25/2006