[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 251717
SWODY2
SPC AC 251716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD.  TO THE W...MEAN RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO THE
PLAINS...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE FROM THE FAR ERN
PACIFIC ONTO THE W COAST.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. 

...SRN FL PENINSULA...

BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN OR CNTRL FL PENINSULA
WITHIN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF 65-70
F.  THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SRN FRINGE OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA WITH MLCAPES
INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG.  

LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
OWING TO PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE WRN
ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS...RELATIVELY
STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SOME
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 02/25/2006