[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 241655
SWODY2
SPC AC 241654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD AS FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W.  WITHIN THIS REGIME...SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER TX AT 25/12Z WILL TRANSLATE
EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EVENTUALLY REACHING SC/GA/NRN FL
BY 26/12Z.  

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN IT/S WAKE...FRONT WILL PUSH SWD INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...SRN LA EWD TO NRN FL...

CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN N OF
SURFACE FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE/EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS WSWLY LLJ MIGRATES EWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  OWING TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THIS ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
LOW MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS BY LATE MORNING OVER
SRN LA WITHIN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S/ WHERE SBCAPES MAY APPROACH 500-700 J/KG.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO
AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF 
MS/AL/GA AND NRN FL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.  RELATIVELY POOR
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.  THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 02/24/2006