[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 240548
SWODY2
SPC AC 240547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BAJA...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD INTO CENTRAL TX BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND THEN
EWD OFF THE GA/SC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP
BY THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW...EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW
ESEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND RESULT IN THE
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH TO AMPLIFY EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A CANADIAN POLAR FRONT FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT THE SRN FL PENINSULA.

...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES...
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS OF LA EWD INTO SERN GA ON
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ONGOING OVER SRN AR/LA/MS IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD AS ZONE OF LOW
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE SRN GA BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KTS...WITH
1 KM SHEAR AT 30-40 KT. IF CELLULAR STORMS DEVELOP...THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAK...LESS THAN 500 J/KG...AND THE UPDRAFT ROOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THE DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR WIND
EVENT...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...CENTRAL/SRN TX...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THE CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN BEHIND EXITING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..IMY.. 02/24/2006