[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 231714
SWODY2
SPC AC 231714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR 28N/122W.  THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO TX FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS....COLD FRONT NOW FROM NRN FL INTO THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL STALL...WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY
RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

23/12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS S TX INTO SRN LA INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A
RATHER DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE / EVEN WITHIN POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS / WITH DEWPOINTS OF 10-12 C AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER. THIS
MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS TX AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THIS ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE W ALONG WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER W TX...DIFFERENCES EXIST
IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SOME
THREAT OF SMALL HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT LOW PROBABILITIES
ATTM.

SOME THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SRN LA ALONG AND S/OF RETREATING
WARM FRONT.  HERE...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HERE TOO...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..MEAD.. 02/23/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM