[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 161709
SWODY2
SPC AC 161708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...CORE OF COLD SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADIAN POLAR LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST.  IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
NATION TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW REGIME
WILL REMAIN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/GULF STATES...TO THE NORTH OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MODELS SUGGEST A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.  AND...A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE SEEMS LIKELY TO LIFT AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA/
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES INTO
CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

...CALIFORNIA...
LOWER-LEVELS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST...AND WILL REMAIN RATHER
COOL.  BUT...BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION COULD TAKE PLACE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO EXIST ALONG NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS...
AND PARTS OF SACRAMENTO/NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS.

...GREAT LAKES...
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY STEEP BENEATH COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME...AND ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION FRIDAY.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT
SEEMS MOST LIKELY OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH POTENTIAL DIMINISHING
ACROSS COASTAL INTO INLAND AREAS.

...EAST TEXAS THROUGH GULF STATES...
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME NEAR LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SHALLOW CONVECTION FRIDAY/
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BE BASED ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION
LAYER...ENHANCED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED
WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE.  ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CAPPED BY
RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL
MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS/DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
BETTER LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  BUT...UNCERTAINTIES SEEM TOO LARGE TO OUTLOOK RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 02/16/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM