[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 171656
SWODY2
SPC AC 171655

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EAST OF ROCKIES...
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE VORTEX ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...THE DEEP EASTERN
CANADIAN SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE...ARCTIC AIR MASS WHICH HAS
SURGED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION WILL BE SLOW TO BEGIN TO MODIFY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF STATES...ABOVE
SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION.  HOWEVER...MOIST LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO
REMAIN CAPPED BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...TO THE NORTH OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA.

...WESTERN STATES...
PERHAPS AT LEAST PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NOW DIGGING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...BROAD COLD MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
INLAND BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL INCREASE FORCING
FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SEEMS
LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COASTAL RANGES...MAINLY SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY.  DESPITE A
RELATIVELY COOL LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT... THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE MAY
ALSO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER INLAND...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS.

..KERR.. 02/17/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM