[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 140633
SWODY2
SPC AC 140632

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CGI 10 SE UNO 35
NE SGF 30 N COU 10 WSW UIN 20 NE PIA 10 SW VPZ 35 NE FWA 15 NNW MFD
25 NW UNI 30 ESE LUK 15 W OWB 40 S CGI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER
48 STATES IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SWLY FLOW PATTERN ON
WEDNESDAY.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST MODELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NRN CANADA...RESULTING IN A BROAD POSITIVELY
TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD AND EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC TO A POLAR VORTEX OVER SRN CANADA BY 12Z THU.  A LEAD SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK
FROM THE NWRN STATES SEWD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WHILE
A WEAKER SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ENEWD ACROSS SRN TX TO GULF COAST
STATES.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT SPREADING E/SE ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 1 SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD
THROUGH MO TO OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO SRN QUEBEC AND NRN OH...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

...MO TO OH...
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS...RESULTING IN A NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE.  A PLUME OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT IN WEAKENING THE INHIBITION ACROSS ERN
TX/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
FARTHER N...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM MO ENEWD INTO OH.  WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 02/14/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM