[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 131633
SWODY2
SPC AC 131632

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CST MON FEB 13 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME APPEARS UNDERWAY NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM LATER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC/EASTERN ALASKA AND THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.  AT THE SAME TIME...A POLAR
LOW IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS HUDSON
BAY...TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WITH A BROADLY
CYCLONIC WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NATION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANTLY
COLD AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY IN WAKE OF
PRIOR COLD INTRUSION.  BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS
BEEN STABILIZED BY THIS COLD INTRUSION...BUT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING
COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN RETURN FLOW
APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.

POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
APPEARS VERY LOW.

..KERR.. 02/13/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM