[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MLB 35 W APF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MOB 25 SSE TOI
45 N SAV 55 SSE ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER THE ERN CONUS IS WELL-UNDERWAY.  THE
STRONG IMPULSE NOW DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE DAKS WILL SWING SEWD
INTO THE OH/TN VLYS EARLY SAT...THEN EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY EARLY SUNDAY.  A STRONG UPPER JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE FL PNHDL AT 12Z SAT TO OFF
THE NJ COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE
SERN STATES AND FL DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

...SERN STATES...
EARMARKS OF THE RECENT CP AIR MASS INTRUSION INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC/
ERN GULF BASINS REMAINS AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DRY AIR WWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES.  A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PLAINS
TROUGH WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT.  BUT...GIVEN
THE SHORT TIME PERIOD... A DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES IN
THE COLUMN.  NONETHELESS... LINES OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM SRN GA SWD INTO THE FL
PNHDL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS.  MOST OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SAT AFTN.  WEAKENING
CONVERGENCE AND THE FACT THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL ALONG THE
FRONT SUGGESTS THAT TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE SWD THROUGH FL
DURING THE DAY.  STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.

..RACY.. 02/10/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM