[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 100618
SWODY2
SPC AC 100617

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MOB 25 SSE TOI
35 WSW MCN 20 SE AGS 35 SW FAY 10 SE RWI 35 NNW ORF 45 E WAL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...NOW ENTERING THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT REACHES THE DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. 
UPSTREAM TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES 12Z
SATURDAY...WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS FROM GA TO THE NC COAST...AND THEN OFF THE DELMARVA TO
NJ COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY
ESEWD OFF THE SC/GA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SEWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA REACHING THE BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...FL PENINSULA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2
PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE SWWD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS FL
AIDING IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR
CONVECTION/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY...AND DECREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AS A RESULT OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NE OF
AREA...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WRN FL
PENINSULA WHERE SBCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR MAY
COEXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 02/10/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM