[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 110538
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE BEGINNING OF A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NOAM DURING...AND PERSISTING BEYOND...THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130-
140W...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 48N 155W.  UPPER
RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS
SPREAD INLAND ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP ERN U.S. TROUGH
TO TRANSLATE EWD.

DEEP SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST AT 12Z
SUNDAY WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WITHIN ERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
ROTATING NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.  STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE INLAND AIR MASS...
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  INTENSE
DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
COINCIDE WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. 
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED STEEP LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THE 400-600 MB LAYER WITH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 02/11/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM