[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 091728
SWODY2
SPC AC 091727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 20 W BGS 70
SE LBB 40 N MWL 30 WNW TXK 35 SE GLH 15 E GAD AHN 10 WNW VDI 45 WSW
CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 55 SSW ALI
65 W COT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE N CENTRAL
CONUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
TIME...WHILE WEAKER SRN STREAM FEATURE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN
MEXICO/TX BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS TX.  NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION AND WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE SECONDARY
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER E TX/LA DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH.  THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLOWLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH TRAILING FRONT LIKEWISE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION.

...SERN TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL
GULF...AND WILL REMAIN ONLY PARTIALLY-MODIFIED INTO THE DAY 2
PERIOD.  AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER E TX/LA AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SRN STREAM TROUGH...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTENING
AIRMASS NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

MAIN FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THUNDER/SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION /SURFACE-BASED
CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ -- AND THUS OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.

THEREFORE...DESPITE FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. 
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR FRONT OVER
ERN TX AND INTO LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED.  ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SERN TX AND INTO SRN LA WHERE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD COEXIST.  ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.  THREAT MAY BE
INCREASED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS SHOULD IT BECOME
APPARENT THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.

..GOSS.. 02/09/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM