[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 090615
SWODY2
SPC AC 090615

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BRO 45 SSW ALI
40 SW COT 45 SE DRT 20 SW SJT 25 WSW ABI 20 NW MWL 25 NNE TYR 40 NNE
HEZ 35 N ABY 45 SW VDI 20 E VLD 65 WSW CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND
RIDGING CONTINUES FROM WRN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. 
MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW NOW APPROACHING BAJA CA IS FORECAST TO SHEAR
OUT ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN TX BEFORE BEING ENTRAINED INTO
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE GULF COAST.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...STRONG COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RAPIDLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION.  A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA /ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE/ WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG THIS COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL TX
INTO SRN OR CNTRL GA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

...SERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH 60F
DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SLY
FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...IT APPEARS
THAT ONLY A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL RETURN NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S.

CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX
WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN TX.  INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX WITH
STORMS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED NEAR THE COAST.

A SEPARATE BELT OF 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE TX COAST FRIDAY WITH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AOB 500-700 J/KG.

SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY
SURFACE-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FROM
THE SE TX COAST EWD ACROSS FAR SRN LA. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.  ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM
OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY.  SHOULD IT BECOME
APPARENT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...A SLIGHT RISK BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF THE REGION.

..MEAD.. 02/09/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM