[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051728
SWODY2
SPC AC 051727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI 35 SSE VLD
45 WSW CTY ...CONT... 50 S BPT 10 SW SHV 30 SSW HOT 30 E LIT 25 SW
UOX 15 ENE CBM 15 WNW LGC 30 WSW AGS 50 SE ILM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DEEP S/SERN STATES MON AND
MON NIGHT.  AN ATTENDANT LOW OVER NRN LA EARLY MON WILL TRANSLATE
EWD THROUGH SRN MS/AL AND INTO COASTAL GA/SC BY 12Z TUE.

...LWR MS VLY TO THE ERN GULF COAST...
RETURN FLOW WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN AND MID-UPPER 50S
DEW POINTS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT.  ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT 12Z MON ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY...DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC
COAST.

SE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE OWING TO INSOLATION AND GRADUAL MODIFICATION/
MOISTENING...BUT BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.  A FEW
STRONGER SURFACE-BASED TSTMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE/DEVELOP MON
AFTN...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 80+ KT ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR
MODES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...THOUGH...WILL BE
THE WEAK BUOYANCY.  LOW PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
SHOULD SUFFICE WITH ANY LOW-END SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING WITH TIME
AND EWD EXTENT MON EVE/NIGHT.

..RACY.. 02/05/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM