[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 050552
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 25 WSW ESF
25 NNE MLU 35 NE GLH 20 SW UOX 45 NW BHM 30 ENE ATL 50 SE ILM
...CONT... 40 E SGJ 30 ESE GNV 55 NW PIE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD
WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES BEING CLOSED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER QUEBEC AND REX-TYPE BLOCK FROM THE PACIFIC
NW INTO THE ERN PACIFIC.  WITHIN THIS BROADER REGIME...SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENT DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE
SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON DAY ONE...AND EVENTUALLY MORE
EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 06/12Z.  THIS CYCLONE
WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
MONDAY...INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS LOW AND IT/S
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST...

CURRENT SURFACE AND GOES SOUNDER PW OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SCOURED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SWD INTO
THE NRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W...IT APPEARS THAT QUALITY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AND DEGREE OF ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.

NONETHELESS...CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WAA AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG SWLY 40-45 KT LLJ.  COUPLING OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION IN
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MAINTAIN THIS WARM
CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA.  DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL
ALLOW SOME THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
SURFACE-BASED /MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR/ AS WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY DESTABILIZES.

CO-LOCATION OF 70-85 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND PERHAPS COMPARATIVELY WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ON S SIDE OF JET AXIS COULD CONSIDERABLY REDUCE
POTENTIAL PARCEL BUOYANCY ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR.  THUS...ONLY
LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM.

THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SRN GA AND NRN FL.

..MEAD.. 02/05/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM