[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 041726
SWODY2
SPC AC 041725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACK 45 NNE BML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FYV 20 SSE BVX 10 NNW
UOX 15 N 0A8 45 SE MEI 35 WSW JAN TXK 45 SSE MLC MKO FYV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE LWR GRTLKS
REGION INTO SERN CANADA SUNDAY.  IN ITS WAKE...A BROAD CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE ERN PARTS OF NOAM. THE UPSTREAM
IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY 12Z MON
WHILE WEAKENING.  AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED FRONT TIED TO THE
DEPARTING NERN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENEWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.  UPSTREAM...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PAC NW
IMPULSE.  THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY
EVE AND INTO THE LWR MS VLY BY EARLY MON.

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
BANDS OF CONVECTION...NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRTLKS CYCLONE...DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND
WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. 

...SERN PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY...
WAVELENGTHS BETWEEN THE ERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE UPSTREAM PAC NW
IMPULSE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SHORT TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
WEAKLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS RETURN INTO THE SERN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY
SUNDAY/EARLY MON.  BUT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AHEAD OF
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE AND AS THE ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADS ATOP THE MOISTURE AXIS...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR SUNDAY EVENING...THEN
SPREAD ESEWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z MON WITH SCATTERED LIGHTNING
POSSIBLE.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OWING TO THE POOR MOISTURE
RETURN.

..RACY.. 02/04/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM