[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040606
SWODY2
SPC AC 040604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FYV BVX MSL 0A8 45
ESE MEI JAN TXK 10 SW RKR FYV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH QUEBEC DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  BUT...A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST STATES...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS REGIME BY EARLY SUNDAY. 
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT PATTERN FROM THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  UPPER FORCING WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF A LEE SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THOUGH...WITH THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ONLY SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MODIFY BY EARLY SUNDAY...ANY
RETURN FLOW TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SEEMS LIKELY TO BE
WEAK...PRECLUDING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

...SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR FRONTAL ZONE JUST
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW.  AS THIS FORCING BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY
EVENING...DESTABILIZATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL PROBABLY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

..KERR.. 02/04/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM