[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 031722
SWODY2
SPC AC 031721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
SRQ 25 NE DAB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
HSE 25 SE RZZ 25 ENE DAN 30 SSW CHO 30 SE MRB 30 NE BWI 25 SSW ACY
50 S ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UIL 20 WSW OLM
EUG MFR 30 SE CEC 40 W ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW CTY CHS FLO 10
S HKY CRW 40 NNE ERI ...CONT... 20 ENE MSS 10 ENE GFL 10 SSW LCI 25
S HUL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH AMERICA TODAY WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE-TILT ORIENTATION
ON SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS NEWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE DEEP S LATER THIS AFTN WILL
TRACK ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND OCCLUDE OVER CNTRL PA BY
SATURDAY AFTN. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE OVER
SRN VA EARLY SATURDAY AFTN AND THEN TRACK NEWD INTO DELMARVA
SATURDAY NIGHT.  TO THE S OF THE LOWS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.  TRAILING PORTION OF
THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL.

...MID-ATLANTIC...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO SLY...TRANSPORTING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 55-60F FROM
ERN NC NWD TO INTO SRN MD.  EARLY DAY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD TRANSLATE NEWD TOWARD
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTN. IN ITS WAKE...POTENTIAL CLEARING AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. 

TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS/STRENGTHENING COLD
FRONT BY MID-AFTN ACROSS WRN NC/VA.  STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY
AS THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK COMPARED TO THE 60+ KT OF VERTICAL
SHEAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
VA...SRN MD AND NRN NC SATURDAY AFTN/EVE.  OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NWD ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO CNTRL PA...BUT THESE TSTMS SHOULD
BE ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER...PREVENTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE.

IN THE SLGT RISK AREA...2-6KM SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING SOURCE.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT A MIX OF LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLD TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ENEWD
INTO DELMARVA LATER SATURDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY
ACROSS CNTRL/NRN FL WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY AND ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL SATURDAY AFTN. 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.  AS SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS GRAZE THE REGION...TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP MORE LINEARLY WITH TIME...WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD
OF THE LINE.  MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL
POSSIBLE.

..RACY/GRAMS.. 02/03/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM