[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 030632
SWODY2
SPC AC 030631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW
SRQ 40 NE MLB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
HSE RZZ 35 S ROA ROA 15 ESE MRB 30 NE BWI 25 SSW ACY 50 S ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UIL 20 WSW OLM
EUG MFR 30 SE CEC 40 W ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MSS 10 ENE GFL
10 SSW LCI EPM ...CONT... 60 NW PIE CHS FLO 10 S HKY CRW 40 NNE ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
VIRGINIA/MARYLAND/DELAWARE....

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS UNDERWAY...WITH A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  ALTHOUGH VARIABILITY EXISTS...BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODELS
GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE TAKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE INITIATION OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION.

WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
CREST OF A SHARP UPSTREAM RIDGE...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES
AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...EASTERN SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD...TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...COLD
AIR WILL SURGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...FLORIDA...
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH/EXTENT OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING 12Z SATURDAY...FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD
OF HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEAR 70F DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY IN THE DAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG IN STRONGLY SHEARED
REGIME...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.  AS SHARPENING CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER FLOW OVERSPREADS THIS ENVIRONMENT ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE.  FRONTAL FORCING MAY
SUPPORT AT LEAST A BROKEN SQUALL LINE...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE.  ISOLATED TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITIONAL TO RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

...MID ATLANTIC...
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE...ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS VIRGINIA EARLY IN THE
DAY SATURDAY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT
CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK...SUPPORTING AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA BY MID DAY. 
SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY APPROACH 60F.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION FROM INITIAL
RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE. 

THOUGH COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MAY LAG TO THE SOUTH/WEST...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN WARM
SECTOR.  THOUGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO BE RATHER
LOW...INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BE BASED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SHEAR IN 50+ KT MEAN FLOW REGIME SHOULD
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS... WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO
PARTS OF EASTERN MARYLAND/DELAWARE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY
EVENING.

..KERR.. 02/03/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM