[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 021712
SWODY2
SPC AC 021710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
PNS 10 NNW DHN 30 WNW SAV 25 W ILM 55 E ILM ...CONT... 50 NE MLB 60
SSW SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE LBX 30 ENE UTS
35 SSW SHV 15 SSE GWO 45 N TCL 65 S TYS 35 SSW PSK 30 ESE CHO 30 SE
WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM
20 SSE SLE 50 E OTH 30 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  CURRENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ENEWD THROUGH
THE TN VLY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SERN CANADA BY FRI AFTN.  IN ITS
WAKE...LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BAND OF STRONG FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE GULF COASTAL REGION.  UPSTREAM...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST FRI NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL
STATES LATE TONIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEWD
ALONG A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ESTABLISHED BY THE LEAD TN VLY
DISTURBANCE.  TRAILING THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY LATE
FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE DEEP S BY 12Z SAT.

...SERN STATES...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND LESS INTENSE WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE ERN LARGE SCALE TROUGH ON FRI...AND THERE REMAINS
MODEST DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS/ECMWF.  THUS...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES ON FRI.

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF
BASIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE
DEW POINTS SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE.  THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO NOT
BE SCOURED OUT IN WAKE OF THE TN VLY DISTURBANCE.

WARM CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FRI AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  GIVEN THE TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD INTO
NRN/CNTRL FL AND SRN GA...NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE
THROUGH THE DAY.  A FEW OF THE TSTMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AS DEEP
LAYER SHEARS OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE.  MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AND WILL BE MODULATED BY HOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PCPN WILL BE. NONETHELESS...KINEMATIC SET-UP
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO.

UPSTREAM...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN MID 50S TO LOWER
60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FORCED BAND OF TSTMS BY FRI EVE FROM AL INTO THE
WRN FL PNHDL.  THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE
SERN STATES THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY/GRAMS.. 02/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM