[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020548
SWODY2
SPC AC 020547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
PFN 25 SW MGR 35 WSW SAV 25 W ILM 55 E ILM ...CONT... 50 NE MLB 60
SSW SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE LBX 30 ENE UTS
35 SSW SHV 25 NNE JAN 45 S ATL 15 SSW CAE 20 WSW GSB 20 WNW ORF 35
SE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM
20 SSE SLE 50 E OTH 30 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
U.S./FL PENINSULA...

...SERN U.S...

DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL FORCE WEAK SFC
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER THE NCNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY. SFC LOW WILL THEN LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST...ALONG OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE ESTABLISHED FROM LEAD
SHORTWAVE/UPPER OH VALLEY CYCLONE.

AIRMASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MODIFIED A GREAT DEAL WITH UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S SFC DEW POINTS NOW EVIDENT OVER MOST OF WRN/SRN
PORTIONS.  AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SWLY THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BEFORE CONTINENTAL OFFSHORE
FLOW SPREADS SEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IT APPEARS WARM ADVECTION
WILL INITIATE CLUSTERS/BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ACROSS NRN FL
PENINSULA WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES.  LATER IN THE
PERIOD...SFC FRONT MAY INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT SURGES
SEWD...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SFC
LOW AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS...OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS SFC DEW POINTS RISE THROUGH THE 60S.

..DARROW.. 02/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM