[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 011725
SWODY2
SPC AC 011724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
BVE 30 SSW PIB 55 N MOB DHN 45 ESE VLD 30 WSW JAX 20 NE OCF 45 NNW
PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E RKS 35 W LAR 35
ESE FCL 50 SSE GLD 20 ENE LBL 35 NE DHT 45 W RTN 50 E DRO 30 S GJT
55 NE U28 35 N VEL 45 E RKS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S 7R4 25 NW 7R4 35
S ESF 25 NW ESF 30 E SHV 25 WNW ELD 35 SE HOT 35 NE LIT 40 NNW DYR
30 E CKV 20 WNW TYS 15 SSW HSS 15 E HKY 20 WSW DAN 20 NW AVC 35 WSW
WAL 45 ENE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 30 S BLI 30
WNW SEA 25 NNW OLM 45 WSW HQM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/NERN
GULF COAST...SWRN GA...AND NRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING TX/LA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
EJECT NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY WHILE UNDERGOING DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS IMPULSE WILL BE
KICKED NEWD AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE
CNTRL U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATION...AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK...TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE
NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN PLAINS.

...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
STRONG ZONE OF QG-INDUCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT AN ARC OF STRONG CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE WRN FL PNHDL. SOME OF THIS LEADING ACTIVITY...WITH
ELEVATED UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE STABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS...WILL
NONETHELESS EXIST IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION
TO SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL OVER INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE
GULF...STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE BAND OF STORMS MOVING EAST
FROM THE MS DELTA AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ELEVATED MCS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH AND WARM FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OUTRUN
GREATER DESTABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE WITH PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER DECREASING WITH NEWD EXTENT.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT MODEST SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION FROM MOBILE BAY EWD TO NRN FL. NAM
AND NAMKF SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG COULD DEVELOP
OVER A LIMITED AREA NEAR THE GULF. DESPITE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION...ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE EVENING. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA
COULD ACQUIRE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIALLY SEVERE
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 02/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM