[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010528
SWODY2
SPC AC 010527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE 7R4 15 S 7R4
25 NNE LCH 30 WSW IER 35 S ELD 30 SW LLQ 40 W CBM 10 S BHM 20 ESE
ATL 30 NW CAE 15 NNW RDU 40 NW ORF 45 E WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE RKS 40 SW LAR
15 ENE DEN 15 ENE PUB 30 WSW TAD 35 NW 4SL 55 S 4BL 30 W U17 40 SE
U24 45 SSE SLC 20 E EVW 35 SE RKS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST/CAROLINA COAST...

LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST BEFORE LIFTING NEWD AND DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ALONG/NORTH OF E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL LA INTO ERN
NC...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR WEAK SFC LOW MOVEMENT AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH.

IT APPEARS MOISTENING/STRENGTH OF VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WILL ENHANCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...MUCH OF
WHICH COULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...AND LIKELY ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER ERN LA/MS.  ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MORE
MEANINGFUL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT HIGHER
THETA-E AIRMASS MAY NOT BE RELEASED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  IF QUALITY AIRMASS DOES
INDEED APPEAR IT WILL MOVE INLAND AND POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT THEN AN UPGRADE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL BE
REQUIRED.  AT THIS TIME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WILL SUFFICE.

..DARROW.. 02/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM