[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 290545
SWODY2
SPC AC 290544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
BGS 45 E HOB 55 SSE CVS 45 NE CVS 35 E DHT 40 SSW LBL 20 NW GAG 35 N
CSM 25 ENE LTS 60 SW SPS 45 W ABI 20 NW BGS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ELP 30 ENE DMN
25 NW TCS 25 ESE GNT 40 NNE 4SL 40 NW TAD 35 ENE LAA 40 SSW RSL 20
NNE ICT 20 NNW BVO 35 W MKO 20 SSE ADM 10 NW SEP 20 ESE SJT 15 E FST
60 S GDP 40 SSE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE 7R4 35 N GPT
25 NE CSG 35 NW CHS 30 SE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO WITH THE 00Z EVENING MODEL RUNS.

IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH...A LEE TROUGH AND
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY HELP ADVECT 50 TO 55 F SFC
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER WCNTRL TX NWD INTO AT LEAST THE SRN AND ERN
TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HIGH...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE
CAPROCK FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS WEST TX. IN ADDITION NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KT WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES BELOW 850
MB. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
COINCIDING WITH THE PEAK IN INSTABILITY. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS AND
MOVES SEWD INTO NW TX...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 09/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.