[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 291702
SWODY2
SPC AC 291701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
BGS 55 NW BGS 30 NW LBB 10 S AMA 50 SSW GAG 30 NE LTS 25 S SPS 45
ENE ABI 35 SSW ABI 25 ESE BGS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ELP 20 ESE ALM
4CR SAF 55 WSW RTN 40 NNW CAO 15 WSW GCK 45 W HUT 20 S EMP 35 ENE
JLN 35 ESE FYV 30 SSW PGO 15 WNW DAL BWD 30 NW JCT 65 N DRT 40 W
DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S 7R4 35 N GPT 25
NE CSG 45 N SAV 50 ESE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW FCA S06 40 SW
S80 20 S BKE 55 S PDT 40 ESE YKM 10 NE EAT 35 WNW 4OM 70 NNW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN
OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BELT OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS/SRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH MAIN REGION OF HEIGHT
FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...SRN
STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING
WILL OPEN AND TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN SRN PLAINS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE TROUGH/WEAK DRYLINE
FEATURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND WILL LIKELY BE
THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...NWRN TX/SWRN OK...

STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK
THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA.  LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER LOW MAY SUSTAIN AREAS OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. 
HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG AT SOME 
LOCATIONS.

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AT THIS TIME ALONG LEE TROUGH
AS INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT.  STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM THE TX S
PLAINS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO SWRN OK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH MAIN CHANNEL OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND SRN
PERIPHERY OF OPENING UPPER SYSTEM.  HERE...GREATEST THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS MAY TEND TO MERGE INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT WITH A MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER.

..MEAD.. 09/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.