[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 271737
SWODY2
SPC AC 271735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE CRP 45 S SAT
50 N DRT 10 WSW FST 30 S ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 65 WSW PRC
30 NE LAS 20 WNW P38 40 W U24 50 S SLC 15 WNW VEL 40 WNW 4FC 25 WSW
DEN 35 SW COS 15 SE LVS 30 NW CVS 30 S AMA 60 NE AMA 30 ESE LBL 30
SSW RSL 10 S CNK 15 WNW STJ 30 SW UIN 25 NE ALN MVN 10 ENE PAH 25
NNE MKL 55 SW BNA 45 SSW LEX 15 SW UNI 45 WNW EKN 20 NNE SSU 25 W
AVL 30 SSE GSP 35 SSW FAY 25 SE EWN 35 SE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ART 35 NW ITH
10 W BFD 20 W YNG 15 SE TOL 20 NE BEH 50 WNW MKG 25 SSE ESC 90 NW
ANJ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARKLATEX TO SRN MO...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BRUSH ERN PORTIONS OF
OK/SRN MO INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...SFC PRESSURES WILL RISE MARKEDLY AND FORCE
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SEWD TO A POSITION FROM ECNTRL
MO...SWWD INTO NWRN TX BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT NOT UNTIL CAP IS
ERODED BY AFTERNOON HEATING...AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCEL ASCENT ATOP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS KS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD
IN THE WAKE OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE INTO WRN MO BEFORE STRONGER
HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT ALLOWS BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO REACH
THEIR LFC.  IT APPEARS ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE RETURNS NEWD AHEAD OF SFC WIND
SHIFT. VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...IT
APPEARS THERE IS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR GUSTY SFC WINDS AS
HIGH CLOUD BASES AND VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES RESULT IN
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD RH VALUES.  THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IF CONVECTION
CAN INDEED DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

...4-CORNERS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG INTO NRN AZ DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN ENHANCED
BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES.  MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME IS
SHUNTED EAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL
READILY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN MOIST CONVEYOR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF AZ INTO NRN NM.  AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ADD SEVERE
PROBABILITIES TO THIS REGION...HOWEVER THIS REGION MAY NEED LOW
PROBS FOR HAIL IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DARROW.. 09/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.