[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 270550
SWODY2
SPC AC 270549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DUG 15 NW FHU
15 NNW TUS 35 SE PHX 40 ESE PRC 40 E GCN 25 ESE U17 45 SE CNY 20 N
MTJ 30 E GUC 45 NW TAD 35 SE RTN 35 NNE TCC 30 WSW AMA 50 ESE AMA 30
SSE GAG 35 E P28 30 N EMP 35 SSW P35 35 ESE IRK 30 SSE SPI 40 ENE
BWG HSS 40 W SOP 35 S HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRP 45 S SAT
50 N DRT 10 WSW FST 40 SSE ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...
AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF NRN CA AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE THE
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE LESS PROBLEMATIC THAN ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND OZARK MTNS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO NOW APPEARS MORE CERTAIN
BECAUSE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FINALLY IN AGREEMENT AS OF THIS EVENINGS
MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO
40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY STEEP...THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT
COULD BE OF GREATER MAGNITUDE IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
CONCERNING INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE MODE AND STORM COVERAGE...A
SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION FOR THE
DAY 2 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 09/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.