[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 261722
SWODY2
SPC AC 261721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 50 SSE IGM
60 NE NID 40 WNW BIH 20 ESE RNO 35 NNW LOL 20 N OWY 20 N PIH 35 NW
LND 20 SW CPR 35 NNE CYS 40 ENE SNY 15 S BUB 20 SE OLU 35 WSW FNB 25
WNW EMP 30 N P28 60 S LBL 10 W HOB 65 WNW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 25 WSW NIR
25 SSW AUS 45 NE ACT 50 SE PRX 35 WNW ELD 20 E MLU 30 N BTR 15 SSW
GPT 20 SSE CEW 45 SSW AGS 20 SSW FLO 15 ENE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE SRN
U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  AT THE SFC...ANY MEANINGFUL AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD EXIST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...SWWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF TX.  AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING
AND ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AID POTENTIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER DARK.


...GREAT BASIN TO KS...

SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NV INTO WRN CO LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS DOWNSTREAM. 
VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES...AOA 14C...WILL CAP RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER DARK...INCREASING LLJ AND WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE KS/NE BORDER...ESPECIALLY AS COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND SURGES
SOUTH INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION.


...GULF COAST/CAROLINA COAST...

E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION
LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AS SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC.  STRONG HEATING ALONG WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR POTENTIAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  IT APPEARS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MINIMIZED WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...THUS
LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..DARROW.. 09/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.