[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 251718
SWODY2
SPC AC 251717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW GLS 25 NNW HOU
10 S ACT 35 N PRX 35 N ARG 25 WSW BLV BRL 55 E APN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF RITA ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY LK HURON SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH/MID MS
VALLEYS INTO TX.  AS SHORT-WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY AND
THEN TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS
THIS REGION.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT SURFACE FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SSWWD
ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AND INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE NORTHEAST...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL EXIST NEAR AND AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT...WHERE PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE
FORCING SHOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THUS LIKELY HINDERING MORE VIGOROUS
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

IT APPEARS ATTM THAT GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY AND
INTO PARTS OF KY/TN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  RELATIVELY STRONG/NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WITH A FEW SMALL-SCALE LINES/BOWS WHICH COULD ORGANIZE ALONG FRONT
IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THREAT SHOULD SPREAD E OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND THEN FAR EWD AS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN
THE EVENING.  OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION HOWEVER...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE THREAT ATTM.

..GOSS.. 09/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.