[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 250554
SWODY2
SPC AC 250554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW CTY 35 SSE GNV
45 E DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ORF 35 NE RWI 25
NNW AGS 30 W ABY 20 N PFN 20 SSW PFN 45 WSW AQQ ...CONT... 45 S PSX
55 E CLL 45 NW ELD 15 W MDH 20 NW MIE 30 ESE DTW ...CONT... 35 W ART
10 NW MPV 50 SSE BHB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID-ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY...
THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS THE REMNANTS OF RITA TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD REACHING WRN KY BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
WILL MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SWWD TO NEAR THE OH RIVER. THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT THIS RUN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
WHICH INCREASES CERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. AS AN UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...STRONG ASCENT COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOWN ON NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR
LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE A MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND HOW WELL THE INSTABILITY PHASES WITH LIFT
FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IF A LOCALIZED AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR CAN BE IDENTIFIED IN LATER MODELS...A SLIGHT RISK MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

...TN VALLEY...
THE REMNANTS OF RITA ARE FORECAST BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY. BANDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
MS...LA AND AL. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT MAY
EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DRIFTS
NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
F...WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 09/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.