[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221704
SWODY2
SPC AC 221703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
PSX 40 N HOU 35 ESE LFK 25 SE POE 10 SSE 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
MCK 45 SW IML 40 NE CYS 40 ENE DGW 30 W RAP 10 NNW PHP 15 NW ANW 20
E MCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SZL
STL 15 W MVN 25 ENE CGI POF 20 NW UMN 60 N JLN SZL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 45 ENE COT
25 NNE ACT 15 SSE PRX 20 SSE PBF 40 ESE GWO 55 SE MEI 30 N CEW 15
WSW MGR 40 W JAX 45 NNW DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 35 W SOW 60
N INW 35 SSW 4BL 40 SSW GJT 30 WNW GJT 50 E PUC 35 ENE U24 35 WSW
DPG 45 NNW ELY 35 NNE U31 25 ENE LOL 20 N WMC 20 N OWY 20 SSE BYI 40
NNE IDA 40 WSW SHR 35 WSW REJ 15 E MBG 50 ENE ABR 35 WSW BRD 65 NE
MSP 40 NNE EAU 35 NE VOK 30 NNW MKE 35 S MKG FWA 15 SW CMH 40 WSW
MGW 25 SE MRB 15 E ACY ...CONT... 40 ESE EWN 35 N FLO 45 WNW AND 25
W CSV 20 NW DYR FYV 50 ENE CSM 30 E LBB 10 SW MAF 50 WSW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN MO INTO SWRN
IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
SWRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH /COMPRISED OF TWO DISTINCT
BRANCHES/ IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN
PACIFIC DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  WITHIN THIS PATTERN...SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN WITH A DOWNSTREAM REGION OF HEIGHT
RISES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WITH WWD EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.  FARTHER TO THE NW...COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ERN WY.

FINALLY.../PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/ CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER TX COAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SRN MO INTO SWRN IL...
MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70/
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...A WEAK CAP AND
SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. 
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WLY WIND FIELDS
ABOVE 6 KM AGL SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
TEND TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND
STABILIZES.

...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS REGION INDICATE COOL/DRY
ADVECTION OCCURRING IN WAKE OF INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS.  INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF SECONDARY
FRONTAL SURGE AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
AID IN THE NWWD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WRN KS INTO WRN NEB.  WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND LEE
TROUGH.

TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE FROM WRN SD INTO ERN WY...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD
AND SEWD OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED...SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS GIVEN THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS TO SUSTAIN ANY DEVELOPING STORMS.

...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA...
WITH APPROACH OF HURRICANE RITA...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS AREA. 
POTENTIAL FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONCURRENTLY INCREASE WITH ANY OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVING ONSHORE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..MEAD.. 09/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.