[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220543
SWODY2
SPC AC 220542

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
HLC 45 E LAA 40 NNE LHX 35 WNW AKO 15 NNE BFF 30 SSE RAP 20 NNE PHP
30 NE VTN 35 WNW BUB 35 WNW EAR 45 S HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
GLS 40 N HOU 40 SE LFK 30 NNW LCH 30 WSW 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 45 ENE COT
25 NNE ACT 15 SSE PRX 20 SSE PBF 40 ESE GWO 55 SE MEI 30 N CEW 15
WSW MGR 40 W JAX 45 NNW DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 NNE BLH
35 E LAS 25 NNE CDC 35 E CNY 50 NNW 4FC 40 S DGW 45 NNE CPR 40 WSW
WRL 15 NNE MLD 55 NNW ENV 20 SSW WMC 85 WNW WMC 65 S BNO 60 NNW BOI
15 ENE DLN 30 NW BIL 35 SSE GGW 65 NNW ISN ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 15
ESE JMS 25 WNW BKX 30 NE SUX 15 SSE DSM 25 SSW RFD 20 SSW ARB 20 WNW
LBE 20 E BWI 30 SSW ACY ...CONT... 40 ESE EWN 35 N FLO 45 WNW AND 25
W CSV 20 NW DYR FYV 50 ENE CSM 30 E LBB 10 SW MAF 50 WSW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AFTER MID AFTERNOON AS HRCN
RITA APPROACHES TX GULF COAST....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDING SWWD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THIS TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...MUCH ATTENTION WILL BE
FOCUSED ON THE TX GULF COAST WHERE HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING NNWWD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...MIDDLE/UPPER TX GULF COAST...

REFER TO LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS BY THE NHC/TPC ON HURRICANE
RITA.  FORECASTS ARE CALLING FOR CENTER OF THIS STRONG HURRICANE TO
APPROACH THE TX COAST SSE OF THE HOU AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  IF THIS OCCURS...FAVORABLE QUADRANT WHERE STRONG SHEAR AND
TORNADOES WILL BE EFFECTING PARTS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA FROM LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  BOTH THE NAM AND NAM-KF
SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES OVER SERN TX INTO WRN LA DURING
THIS PERIOD TO SUPPORT TORNADOES IN THE ADVANCING RIGHT QUADRANT OF
THE HURRICANE.

...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO INCREASE NWD THRU THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS AS SLY/SELY RETURN FLOW OCCURS AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.  LOW LEVEL
JET OF 35-40 KT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WRN KS INTO NERN SD
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.  SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF
40-50 KT AT 500 MB AND 70-80 KT AT 250 MB WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN CO
INTO WRN NEB AND WRN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO ADVECTION AND AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
JUST ABOVE 7.5C/KM.  THUS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE BETWEEN 45-50 KT SUPPORTING ROTATING STORMS.

..MCCARTHY.. 09/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.