[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210559
SWODY2
SPC AC 210558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
DAY 30 ENE EVV 35 WNW POF 15 ESE JLN BVO 40 NNE PNC 35 E ICT 20 NE
EMP FLV 25 E IRK 40 SE MMO 35 NW FWA 25 ENE FWA 30 ESE FWA 10 WNW
DAY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 35 WNW GBN
45 NNE TRM 15 E NID 15 WNW TPH 20 N ELY 35 ESE DPG 25 E SLC 15 NW
MLD 35 SW SUN 45 WSW 27U 30 S 3DU 10 WNW LVM 60 E JAC 30 N RWL 20 NW
CYS 45 E FCL 15 E LHX 35 NW TCC 30 S 4CR 20 WSW DMN 45 E DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 40 SE CLL 55
ENE CLL 20 SW GGG 40 ESE PRX 10 W FSM 30 WNW TUL 25 W ICT 20 WSW MHK
FNB 10 ENE MLI 40 NW CGX 20 NNE GRR 20 S OSC ...CONT... 15 WSW MSS
35 WSW GFL 25 ENE AVP 15 WSW ILG 20 S WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS ENEWD INTO INDIANA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT....

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN ENEWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NERN U.S.  THE WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT
SWD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS SWD EXTENDING FROM SERN BC SWWD ACROSS NWRN CA BY
23/12Z.  MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES AS ABNORMALLY
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES EWD OVER
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.

...ERN KS/WRN MO ENEWD THRU IL AND INDIANA...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN
PARTS OF LOWER MI SWWD THRU NWRN MO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NERN STATES...AND SLOWLY SWD/SSEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND OK INTO NWRN TX DURING THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DUE TO STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
TX...BUT MODELS INDICATE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

AIR MASS ALONG AND S AND E OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY.  NAM LOOKS TO BE
OVERDOING SLIGHTLY THE POOLING OF DEW POINTS OVER ERN KS/WRN MO AT
THIS TIME...BUT IN GENERAL...MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG. THUS...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS FRONTAL FORCING
BREAKS THRU CAPPING INVERSION. STRONG INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM ALONG AND JUST S OF THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY AS WELL
AS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS FROM MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

..MCCARTHY.. 09/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.