[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201743
SWODY2
SPC AC 201742

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
MLI 30 SE OTM 25 NNE LWD 45 E OMA 25 SSE SUX 25 SSE FSD 20 E BKX 30
NNW RWF 15 E STC 60 N EAU 15 W RHI 40 S IMT 35 W MBL 40 E MKE 20 N
CGX 40 E MLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE OSC 10 NNW AZO
35 ESE BRL 20 WSW STJ 25 NNE RSL 20 SE GLD 35 N LHX 55 S ALS 10 SSW
GNT 70 ESE SOW 35 E DUG ...CONT... 25 ESE CZZ 45 ENE RAL 50 NW NID
10 SW NFL 55 NW WMC 45 SSW BOI 35 SW DLN 30 S LVM 30 SE SHR 35 NE
DGW 35 WSW CDR 55 NE AIA 35 NNE VTN 15 W ATY 40 E AXN 45 SSW CMX 40
NNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 40 NNE MLU
25 NW MSL 20 WNW HSS 20 NNE HKY 35 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SRN U.S. WHILE A BROAD BELT OF STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS FROM THE WEST COAST TO NEW
ENGLAND. A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF
THE COAST OF CNTRL CA...IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE
INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
IMPULSE BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FAST ZONAL NRN STREAM... ONE OR
TWO LEADING PERTURBATIONS WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
PERSISTENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME AND
STRONG CAP FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS IA AND THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING SSWLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEWD
BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE MO VALLEY NNEWD ACROSS NRN IA AND
SERN MN. FRONTOGENESIS AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SRN MN/NRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST FROM
THE DAKOTAS. MASS INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONT IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION BY EVENING AND RESULT IN
RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ZONE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR. GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE NEAR WAVE
CYCLONE/WARM FRONT WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STORM INITIATION.
PATTERN APPEARS TO SUGGEST THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MCS
TRACKING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM SRN
MN/NERN IA...SEWD INTO PARTS OF WI AND NRN IL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB IN THE WAKE OF THE
MN/IA SYSTEM. LIFT ALONG OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN THESE AREAS AND PROMOTE SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AFTER DARK.

...GREAT BASIN/NRN AZ TO CNTRL ROCKIES...
ANOMALOUS PLUME OF HIGH PW AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WEST AHEAD DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHILE POCKETS OF MUCAPE
APPROACHING 300 J/KG COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY LIMIT HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS AS THIS UNUSUALLY MOIST
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

..CARBIN.. 09/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.