[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211805
SWODY2
SPC AC 211804

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
ERI 15 NW MFD 40 NNE DAY 25 ENE IND 25 WSW IND 15 NNE ALN 35 E COU
15 S SZL 40 NE CNU 30 NNW CNU 40 W EMP 30 ESE SLN 20 N MHK FNB 25 W
LWD 10 N OTM 45 SE DBQ 30 W MKE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ILM CAE 15 NE
LGC 30 SE MEI 25 WSW MCB 25 NNW BTR 25 SSW LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 30 E TRM
20 SSE DAG 50 SSW DRA 45 N LAS 25 SE P38 20 NNW CDC 30 ENE MLF 45 W
PUC 35 SE SLC 25 WNW OGD 50 S BYI 20 WSW TWF 55 SE BOI 35 NW SUN 35
SSE 27U 15 NNW BZN 50 ESE LWT 50 NW MLS 30 NW DIK 20 SW BIS 50 WSW
MBG 50 NE RAP 40 ESE 81V 45 SW GCC 20 SSE WRL 45 NW RIW 30 E BPI 15
NNE RKS 20 WNW RWL 45 SSW DGW 40 NNE CYS 10 SE SNY 25 SSE LBF 20 NNE
GRI 25 S SUX 15 ESE SPW 35 WSW RST 25 SE CWA 35 NNE GRB 40 W PLN
ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PWM 20 SSW PSF
20 S MSV 25 ESE IPT 20 SE HGR 25 NNE SSU 30 ESE 5I3 20 SE LOZ 25 NE
BNA 35 ENE DYR 25 ENE ARG 15 E UMN 30 SW BVO 20 SE END 25 W CDS 50 S
CVS ROW 10 SSE ALM 30 E DMN 45 SW DMN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY
TO THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NRN BORDER
STATES WILL EXPAND SWD THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS...WITH ORIGINS IN THE SRN STREAM...PHASE WITH
AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE NRN STREAM FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES. MODEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO SERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND AID IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI...THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...FROM LAKE MI
WSWWD TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WILL ONLY ADVANCE SLOWLY
SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS THE FRONT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE REGIONS BEGINS TO SUBSIDE.

...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...
A STRONG MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY FROM LOWER MI INTO NRN IL
AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENHANCES ASCENT ALONG WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN ONTARIO SWWD TO IA. NARROW WARM/MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAINTAIN A FEW CLUSTERS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER
WEST...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CAPPED
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM MO EWD TO IL/IND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION COULD POSE SOME THREAT OF HAIL
UNTIL WARM SECTOR CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED
STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDINESS ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SO THAT RESULTANT
COLD POOLS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ACT TO OVERCOME CAPPING AND
SUPPORT CLUSTERS OR LINES OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
LOWER MI/IND BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE A FEW
DAMAGING WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

FROM IL WWD TO ERN KS...CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR IN THESE AREAS AND MAY ONLY BE OVERCOME AS LIFT DEEPENS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF ERN KS/MO AND IL AFTER DARK. A LINEAR MCS WITH SOME MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE ACROSS ERN KS/MO AREAS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND IMPINGES ON
THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..CARBIN.. 09/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.