[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200602
SWODY2
SPC AC 200602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
SUX 30 SSE FSD 25 WNW OTG 25 SW MSP 10 SE EAU 15 SE VOK 35 WSW RFD
25 N BRL 25 WSW OTM 30 SE OMA 25 SW SUX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 10 NW VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW IPL 35 N TRM
65 SE BIH 20 ESE RNO 40 SE 4LW 45 WSW BOI 55 WSW MQM 45 E WEY 60 ESE
WRL 40 E DGW 15 NNW AIA 20 S VTN 40 SSE 9V9 35 SSE ABR 35 ENE STC 10
S IMT 35 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 45 NNE MTC 20 ESE GRR 25 NNW CMI 35 SSE
UIN 30 WSW CNK 20 SE GLD 35 N LHX 55 S ALS 55 S GUP 50 ESE PHX 55 SW
TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE JAX 25 NE MGR
45 SSW SEM 15 SSE MCB 30 NE LCH 40 S SHV 20 SSE ELD 25 WNW UOX 40
WNW CSV 30 NNW GSO 15 E ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS
SRN MN/IA INTO SWRN WI...

...SYNOPSIS...
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SD/NRN NEB INTO SRN MN/IA IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHEARS EWD...AND
ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA TRANSLATES OVER THIS REGION WITHIN STRONG
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCATED FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO SERN STATES. IN THE WEST...TROUGH OVER CA WILL DE-AMPLIFY
AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WSWWD TO THE DAKOTAS SHOULD MOVE SSE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES...AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL WI SWWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN
NEB BY 22/00Z. MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE WAVE INITIALLY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN WRN SD WILL REDEVELOP SEWD TO NERN NEB BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...SRN MN/SWRN WI/IA SWWD TO NEB...
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN MOISTURE
ADVECTION NNEWD TO THE MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT.  PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD ATOP
THE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA WILL RESULT IN A
VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
AID IN WEAKENING THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
THUS...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS MORE LIKELY EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...AS LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES
ON THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ.  EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR VALUES WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WLY MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN
SUPPORTING ELEVATED ORGANIZED STORMS.  THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS
SRN MN AND IA INTO SWRN WI.  MODELS SUGGEST STORMS...POTENTIALLY
SEVERE...MAY BACKBUILD INTO ERN NEB WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SSEWD INTO THIS REGION.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF NRN NEB...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER
THIS AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GREAT BASIN MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

...PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
ALTHOUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CA TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS
IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2...A CONTINUED INFLUX
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 50
KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET LOCATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.  INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE
ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS.. 09/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.